Mobile UA Notes

ATMO 11/18 - Climate Change

2008-11-18T13:41:00.000-07:00

Proxy Records - Inferred records of past climate that are not based on
direct measurement. Information can be obtained about past temperature
and precipitation patterns as well as past concentrations of some
greenhouse gases. Climate reconstruction based on proxy records are by
no means certain and are only estimates.

Pleistocene Epic:
- Period from ~2 million years ago to ~15k years ago
- Alternating glacial (ice ages, glaciers advancing) and interglacial
(glaciers retreat) periods
- At least 20 glacial/interglacial cycles

Many geoscientists believe the increase in temperature led to increase
in greenhouse gases (warmer water cannot dissolve as much CO2 or
Methane, therefore it is released into the atmosphere)

We are currently in a warming interglacial period

Is our planet fragile or robust?
- Is the climate system and life on Earth fragile or robust? Easy to
change or hard to change?
- Is adding CO2 poisoning our environment?
- Some extinctions have been caused by slight changes in local environments
- The entire biosphere can be considered robust, but individual
species the Earth can be considered fragile

The climate of the Holocene:
- Holocene Epoch - the present interglacial period which began after
the peak of the last true ice age ~15k years ago

- Younger Dryas - 500-1,000 years of where the temperature was
relatively cold and rapidly changed 12k-11.5k years ago. Dropped 2C in
under 50 years (very rapid change), then after 1,000 years
temperatures increased by 3C in about 50 years. Major natural
fluctuations have occurred during the Holocene. This shows how
sensitive the climate can be.

- Holocene Maximum - 14k-10k years ago, Humans did much better during
this warm period often labeled a maximum or optimum.
- Medieval Warm Period - 1100-1300AD where temperatures were 1C warmer than 1900
- Little Ice Age - 1550-1850AD where temperatures were 1C less than 1900

- In Europe during these times there were major changes in societies
- Medieval period had grapes grown in England and Wheat grown in
Norway (64 degrees north latitude)
- Little Ice Age period had significantly less agricultural productivity

Periods to remember:
- 5000-3000 BC, Holocene Optimum - warmest temperatures of the entire
Holocene period, warmer than today
- 600-300 BC, Pre-Roman Cool Period
- 200BC-400AD, Roman Warm Period
- 600-900 AD, Dark Ages Cool Period
- 1100-1300 AD, Medieval Warm Period
- 1550-1850 AD, Little Ice Age
- 1900-Present, Modern Warming Period

ECON 11/18 - Exam 3 Review

2008-11-18T10:35:00.001-07:00

Fiscal Policy (Keynesian, LM flat, IS steep)
Monetary Policy (Classical, Monetarists, LM steep, IS flat)

All agree that the FED should not have discretionary monetary policy

Fiscal policy funded by money supply creation and funding budget deficits by going into the loanable funds market

Ch. 10 - AW Phillips
- Rate of inflation and unemployment relationship
- Inverse relationship, if you inflate prices unemployment will decrease

ATMO 11/13 - Carbon in the Atmosphere

2008-11-13T13:45:00.001-07:00

The missing sync
- Some unknown feature that keeps carbon dioxide levels lower than they would be without it

Influences of other atmospheric elements
- Hydrosphere (oceans, fresh water) (water vapor is a stronger green house gas than carbon)
- Biosphere (life on the ground and what grows there)
- Land surface (forms weather patterns)
- Cryosphere (ice and glaciers)

Feedback Mechanism
- a process whereby the response to an initial change either reinforces the chance (positive feedback) or weakens it (negative feedback)

Climate Models' Predictions of Climate Change
- No one model can incorporate all the feedback mechanisms

Ocean Temperatures
- Tend to lag behind the earth's temperature increase because water requires a lot of energy to increase it's temperature

ATMO 10/28 - Exam 2 Review

2008-10-28T13:46:00.001-07:00

Exam 2 Topics:

Topic MC/SA
- Precip 2/0
- Lift Parcel (with table) 4/0
- Lift/Lower Parcel (no table) 2/1
- T'storms, occurrence/life cycle 2/0
- T'storm features (explanation) 4/2
- Lightning/Thunder 4/0
- Tornadoes 3/0
- Impacts Severe Weather 3/0
- 500mb map & Q's 6/0
- 500mb Q's (no map) 1/1
- Surface pressure, winds 2/1
- Upper level winds 0/1
- Ozone depletion 2/1
- UV exposure 1/1
- Numerical weather forecasting 0/0

Test Review:
- Flying west takes longer (head wind)
- Why are jet stream and 500mb winds westerly winds (flowing toward the east)?
- Heat and cold waves (exposure to temperatures) kill the most people each year
- Lightning distance = time / 5
- Sea level pressure equivalents can vary (sometimes lower here, sometimes lower there)
- Closer to solar noon has greater uv exposure
- Sweat does not help block UV
- Tucson has a relatively high altitude, clean atmosphere, and dry air allow more uv radiation to reach the surface
- Strong winds can occur from a distant thunderstorm (gust front from down draft)
- Merging gust fronts can form a new thunderstorm
- Low: SE winds warm humid air from gulf of mexico
- Middle: SW winds hot dry air from mexican highlands
- High: West winds cold air from north Pacific
- Convective cap: caps convection (inhibits t'storm formation) breaking this cap (via extremely unstable air) can cause super cell t'storms

ECON 10/28 - Alternate Views of Output, Inflation, and Unemployment

2008-10-28T10:13:00.002-07:00

Current Events:
- Read Warren Weaver article
- Fed meeting today: talking about cutting rate from 2% to 1%
- Housing sales are up, prices are still going down
- Banks have received a total of 175 billion dollars for purchase of preferred stock to re-capitalize the industry
- Bloomberg.com : good resource for interest and mortgage rates, bond prices and rates, etc.

The Natural Rate of Unemployment:
- Long run unemployment
- Determined by real factors
- Output and employment tend toward an equilibrium in the long run
- Rate of unemployment when the economy is in an long-run equilibrium
- Somewhere between 4 and 5%

Price Expectations and Short-Run Adjustments:
- Workers do not have perfect info about the relationship between their money wage and the real wage
- In the short run, workers base their labor supply decision on expected prices and use an approximation for the real wage, W/Pe
- Unemployment in the short run is based on the expected real wage and may not equal the natural rate

The Phillips Curve:
- In the short run there is an inverse relationship between price inflation and unemployment (Called the Phillips Curve)
- Rising inflation increases demand for workers
- Workers do not demand wage increases equal to the rate of inflation
- Companies can afford to increase employment and the unemployment rate falls

Long Run Adjustment:
- Workers eventually see the entire increase in the general price level
- Labor supply falls when workers recognize the full extent of price inflation
- Employers must raise wages to maintain employment when workers fully appreciate the actual rate of inflation
- Employment falls back to the natural rate once employers pay the full real wage, W/P

Time Varying Natural Rate Varies As:
- Institutions change
- Competition from lower-wage nations increase
- Hysteresis (current values are influenced by past values)

ECON 10/23 - Policies

2008-10-23T10:27:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Fed to increase interest rate on bank reserves (gives them to increase reserves and make more interest, not loan funds)

Four Principles:
- The supply of money is the dominant influence on nominal income
- Short run, money supply can influence real factors and is primarily responsible for business cycles
- The private sector is inherently unstable

- A lot of moving around assets but not assets to money changes which keeps the money supply stable

Monetarist Position:
- Steep LM curve
- Investment demand is relatively stable (I0)
- Flat IS curve
- Shifts in LM are important, IS isn't too important

Fiscal Policy:
- Can be successful if financed by money creation
- Increase in money supply because of gov't deficit will increase the economy
- Borrowing from the public (loanable funds market) will just drive interest rates up and investment down

"There is a saying that the best if often an enemy of the good."

Velocity of Money:
- Tends to dip down (sometimes below average) during recessions

ATMO 10/21 - Wind Speed, Direction, Surface Maps

2008-10-21T13:43:00.001-07:00

Pressure Gradient (PG):
- Change in pressure/change in distance
- Stronger the PG, stronger the winds
- PG points from higher to lower pressure
- PGF (F = Force) pushed air from high to low pressure
- No PG, no wind (calm conditions)

Weather Maps:

Surface (or sea level) maps:
- Plot "equivalent" sea level pressure
- Contours are iso bars (constant pressure lines)
- Use iso bars to estimate/visualize pressure gradients and winds

Upper air maps:
- Plot height of pressure surfaces
- Use height contours to estimate/visualize pressure gradients and winds

Surface Maps:
- Station pressure: measured (actual) air pressure mad using a barometer at a weather station
- Sea Level Pressure: estimate of air pressure if the station were at sea level (must make an altitude correction to the measured station pressure)

Corriolis Force:
- Effect on winds due to Earth rotating and air not being fixed to the surface

Friction Force:
- Near surface, winds are slowed by friction between the air and ground

Net Effect of Forces:
- Considering PG, CF, FF, the wind direction near ground (on sea level maps) is ~60 degrees to the right of the PG (or 30 degrees toward lower pressure).

Surface Low Pressure Area:
- Wind direction is generally counter-clockwise and slightly inward (resulting in surface convergence and rising air motions, possibly leading to clouds and precipitation).

Surface High Pressure Area:
- Wind direction is generally clockwise and slightly outward (resulting in surface divergence and sinking air motions, leading to fair weather)

ECON 10/21 - Commanding Heights Movie

2008-10-21T10:39:00.001-07:00

Commanding Heights Questions:
Commanding Heights are the steel, railroad, and other giant industries in the economy.

When did globalization begin?
- 1910 (Early 20th century)

Why did Hitler rise to power in Germany?
- Economic revival
- Fight against inflation

What was Keynes' first book? (Not General Theory)
- Indian Currency and Finance?

After WWI what was the major economic problem we faced?
- Socialism and communism
- Hyper inflation
- Depressions
- High unemployment

What was Hyatt's problem with Keynesian economics and macroeconomics?
- The Road to Serfdom
- Too much gov't planning leads to too much gov't control, and that leads to less freedom for the people.
- Rejected gov't intervention (even during the depressions)

ATMO 10/16 - 500mb Height Patterns

2008-10-16T13:44:00.001-07:00

Wind Direction and Speed at 500mb:
- Direction is parallel to height iso bars
- The arrow should have lower heights on the left and higher heights on the right
- Speeds are relatively higher where the height contours are closer together and relatively slower where the height contours are farther apart
- Surface lows are "steered" by 500mb winds
- Hurricane systems are moved around by the 500mb winds
- Individual thunderstorms are mostly influenced by the 500mb winds

Precipitation:
- Likely on the down wind side of the trough axis
- Air rises as it comes out of the trough
- Unlikely on the down wind side of the ridge axis
- Air sinks as it comes out of the ridge

Long Wave:
- Wavelength: distance between trough to trough (typically a few thousand kilometers)
- Northern Hemisphere typical has between 3 and 7 waves if you look around the north pole

Why Precipitation/Clear Skies:
- Divergent force above 500mb after troughs (upper tropospheric divergence)
- Faster wind speeds produce stronger divergence (stronger weather producer)
- Convergent force above 500mb after ridges (upper tropospheric convergence)

Types of trough/ridge combinations:
- Zonal/Flat: little precipitation (weaker weather conditions close to average)
- Meridional/Amplified: possible precipitation (stronger weather conditions, well above or below average)
- Retrograding: when the trough or ridge moves westward instead of eastward
- Stationary/Blocked patterns: similar weather day to day

Curvature of Trough:
- The sharper the curvature, the stronger the divergence, the stronger the weather that is produced

Short waves: (No test questions on short waves)
- Much smaller than long waves
- Mini-troughs or ridges within the long wave
- Produce smaller areas of weather
- Typically move through the long wave pattern faster than the long wave itself moves
- "Pieces of energy", "little disturbances in the flow", "Pocket of cold air aloft"

Closed and Cut off low:
- Cut off low: a closed low detached from the mainstream 500mb winds and can remain stationary for a long period of time (few days to a week)

Extra Credit Assignment:
- Available online on the course website
- Analyzing 500mb maps

Part 1a:
- Play a TV weather man's role and make a very general forecast of the united states

Part 1b:
- Make sure you give the estimated 500mb height for Tucson!
- Give a little more precise forecast of Tucson and give above/below average temperature forecasts
- Is Tucson in a favorable place for precipitation?

Part 2a:
- Compare forecasted and real/true 500mb maps
- For each forecast, tell whether or not you're forecast would have been good or not

Part 2b:
- Compare forecasted and real/true 500mb maps for Tucson
- Make sure you give the estimated real 500mb height for Tucson!
- For your Tucson forecast, tell whether or not it was a good forecast or not

Extra credit goes towards your homework grade. Counted as half as much as the 2nd and 3rd homework assignments.

ATMO 336 - Severe Weather Impact and 500mb Weather Maps

2008-10-14T13:44:00.001-07:00

Trends in weather-related damages and deaths:
- Balanced number of deaths from severe weather from increasing forecasting/awareness and increasing population
- Increasing trend in damaged costs due to people having more valuable stuff and more property along the coastlines
- Heat wave: 5 consecutive days with temperatures 9F or more above average in the summer months
- Cold wave: similar definition from above
- More people die from heat waves in the northern cities (where it is out of the norm)
- More people die from cold waves in the southern cities (where it is out of the norm)
- Popular press shows more awareness about heat waves however the trend of articles show more deaths are from cold-waves
- Different studies yield very different results

500mb Weather Maps:
- Height of 500mb pressure level is plotted
- Contour map
- Can tell us things about temperature, storms, where it's cool and warm...
- hPa = mb
- 0 hour forecast is the truth, based on current observations
- Best observation using this map: general temperatures where it is above or below normal
- The higher the temperature, the higher the 500mb height
- Near a trough there will be below average temperatures
- Near a ridge there will be above average temperatures
- Closed Low: region of locally low heights around which one or more closed contours are drawn. Indicate a "pool" of colder air surrounded by warmer air.
- Can also have closed highs
- Comparing trough or ridge height with average height for that time of year
- October average 500mb height for Tucson is about 5800

ECON 10/14 - Exam 2 Review

2008-10-14T10:38:00.001-07:00

Ch. 5
- No prices or interest rates
- Consumption function based on income
- Multiplier/Magnified
-Investment is the problem: based on expectations of future changes and the volatility of this causes business cycles
- Changes in exports/imports have a multiplicative impact on the economy

Ch. 6
- Money Demand is a function of income (transactions demand for money)
- Interest rate demand for money (speculative demand)
- Classical theory money demand was only a function of interest rates

- Money supply is controlled by the monetary authority/central bank/Federal Reserve
- Increase is Ms, equilibrium will move outward and reduces interest rates

- Investment function has an inverse relationship to interest rates (profitable opportunities)
- Interest sensitivity of investment demand was small

- Do not have to memorize LM/IS equations

- LM curve is derived from the equilibrium of
- The intercept of the curve has money supply in it, so changes of the money supply change the LM curve (increase is Ms decrease LM intercept, decrease in Ms increase LM intercept)
- Interest sensitivity of money demand is high, LM curve is flat and when it's low the LM curve is steep
- IS curve = equilibrium between interest rates and income and is negatively sloped (interest rates rising, investment goes down)
- Intercept of IS has autonomous factors (A, I, G, T) shift the IS curve
- Increasing taxes reduces the IS Curve intercept
- Interest sensitivity of investment is low, IS is steep, if it's high, the IS curve is flat

- Keynes: Interest sensitivity of money demand is high (flat LM curve), and investment is low (steep IS curve)
- Classical: Interest sensitivity of money demand is low (steep LM curve), and investment is high (flat IS curve)
- **Remember Keynes introduced interest sensitivity of money demand so he thought it was high (flat LM), the rest can be worked out logically**

Ch. 7
- How steep are the IS and LM curves and what shifts them?
- IS curve does not shift is Ms is changed
- Decrease in Ms increases the intercept of LM, shifting it back and to the left
- Increasing money supply reduces interest rates and investment increases, causing an expansionary
- Fiscal policy shift the IS curve, doesn't effect the LM
- Increasing the intercept of the IS curve (gov't spending) pushing interest rates up and increases GDP, income
- Reduction of gov't spending shifts the IS Curve to the left and decreases income and GDP
- Keynes favorite fiscal policy because he though the LM curve was flat, and IS was steep
- Monetary policy more effective in non-keynesian world, steep LM, flat IS

Ch. 8
- Introduce prices into the money demand function, the Fed doesn't control the real money supply, only the nominal money supply (Ms).
- Real money supply is Ms/P (prices increases, real Ms falls)
- Prices in the LM curve: intercept changes as prices change
- Prices go up, LM curve up (GDP declines). Prices fall, LM curve shifts down (GDP increases)
- Prices and GDP are inversely related
- Aggregate prices on Y, GDP on X axis, aggregate demand is negatively sloped

- Perfect adjustment by labor supply when prices change. Increase 20% in prices, labor supply increases 20% (money wages increase 20%) (moving in lock step in perfectly adjusting labor market: classical theory)
- Keynes: contractional position on wage determination: people are reasonable, but will focus on relative wages.
- Relative wages cause wages in the downward direction to be sticky (inflexible decreasing wages, they may fall with prices, but not as far)
- Keynes wage rigidity: aggregate supply curve is very close to horizontal
- Keynes accepted the flexible price, variable wage theory (wages will fall with prices but not as much). Positive aggregate supply curve in price/? plane

Current Events:
- Unemployment: 6.1%
- CPI: -0.1%
- Labor force falling as unemployment stayed the same and more people are jobless
- 700 billion dollar bail out
- Banks aren't lending currently: both flat and steep LM curve (vertical when enacting expansionary fiscal policy) (horizontal when enacting expansionary monetary policy)

ATMO 10/9 - Lightning

2008-10-09T13:51:00.001-07:00

Current Weather:
- Hurricane Norton: SE Pacific headed for Baja then the moisture will head NE toward SE Arizona and SW New Mexico
- Chance of showers this weekend because of moisture moving in, but the trough pushing south from Canada will determine rain/no rain

Lightning:
- Cloud-Ground lightning is only 20% of lightning in a storm
- Most of lightning (80%) is intra-cloud lightning (from negative area to positive area)

Sequence of Events for Cloud to Ground Lightning:
- Charge separation in cloud; induction charge on ground
- Formation of a stepped leader; moves in surging steps toward the ground, the path is unpredictable
- When ~100 ft from ground, positive leaders surge upward from objects on ground
- When connection is made, lightning occurs (flow of electrons through lightning channel from cloud to ground)

Lighting Up:
- The lightning bolt lights up from the bottom because the electrons flow the fastest from the bottom where the connection is made and electrons upward start flowing, lightning up the bold from the bottom up

St. Elmo's Fire:
- Green/Blue positive leaders

Distance to Lightning:
- (Speed of Sound) X (Time to Hear Thunder)
- Example: (1 mile / 5 seconds) X (10 seconds) = 2 miles

Electric Field Measurement:
- Measures the strength of charge build-up
- When the strength gets to a certain threshold, a lightning strike is probable and a warning can be issued

ECON 10/9 - Ch. 8 Aggregate Supply

2008-10-09T10:28:00.001-07:00

Ch. 5 - Consumption is a function of income
Ch. 6 - Money demand is a function of interest rates (and income)
Ch. 7 - Aggregate Demand
Ch. 8 - Aggregate Supply

Wage Ridgity: The Keynesian View of Labor Markets:
- Keynes held a contractual view of labor markets
- Contracts, implicit and explicit, prevent the labor market from fully adjusting to the changes in demand and supply
- With incomplete adjustment in labor markets, the aggregate supply function will not be vertical
- Chart in book about GB: classical wage flexibility isn't supported, wage rigidity is better supported when wages are needed to decrease

Figure 8-6:
- Keynesian Aggregate Supply when money wage is fixed
- Employment goes down as labor demand goes down and wages are fixed
- As demand and employment falls, output falls
- Aggregate price level falls with the fall in output

Flexible Price, Variable Wage Model:
- Wages do not fall as much as prices

3 Key Ideas to Keynesian Analysis:
- Consumption Function
- Speculative Demand for Money
- Imperfect Flexibility of Money

Aggregate Supply on Prices and Output:
- Prices rise and output falls when aggregate supply will decreases
- Aggregate supply shifts are called cost-push
- Changes in costs or technology affect aggregate supply
- Oil prices in late 07 and early 08 were cost-push effects from a reduced supply of oil

Demand-Pull:
- Supply and Output are moving together is cost-push*
- Supply and Output moving separately is demand-pull*

ATMO 10/7 Thunderstorms and Tornadoes

2008-10-07T13:45:00.000-07:00

Up drafts and Down drafts:
- Instability aka potential (energy)

Difference between SW and SE thunderstorms:
- SW has higher temperature and lower dew point temperature
- SW has higher elevation (even in the valley)
- SW has much higher cloud bases (must cool more for condensation to occur)
- SW has less water vapor to condense, and less latent heat addition from condensation, resulting in weaker up drafts
- SE has low cloud base, more water vapor, more latent heat, resulting in stronger up drafts
- SW rain falls through a deep unsaturated layer below cloud base with very low relative humidity, resulting in evaporitive cooling and strong down drafts
- SW rain falls through a shallow unsaturated layer, with high relative humidity, resulting in weaker down drafts because there is less evaporitive cooling

Required for T-Storm Formation:
- Wind shear assists in keeping up and down drafts separated

Super cell:
- Extremely large (20-30 mi. diameter) single cell thunderstorm with extremely strong up draft (up to 100 mph with counter-clockwise rotation)
- Dome cloud is formed from momentum of up draft "punching" through the stable layer (anvil) of the atmosphere

Tornadoes:
- Violently counter-clockwise rotating column of air which descends from a thunderstorm
- Tornado center is typically 10-20% lower pressure than the surrounding area
- Tornado outbreak: many tornadoes occurring over a short period of time
- 75% of all tornadoes form in the US

Know: "Summary of Tornado Characteristics" table:

Tornado Safety:
- Deaths and injuries commonly caused by flying debris

Tornado Formation:
- Unstable atmosphere able to form strong t-storm formation
- A lifting force (most common: surface heating and weather fronts)
- Vertical wind shear to provide rotation

Inversion Layer / Convective Cap:
- Inhibits formation of thunderstorms in the morning
- Allows atmosphere to heat up in the lower part, then break the cap and form very severe t-storms or super cells
- Holds back convection until a lot of energy and water vapor build up in the lower atmosphere

ECON 10/7 - Aggregate Supply and Demand

2008-10-07T10:12:00.001-07:00

Price changes and the Real Money Supply:
- Ms (Nominal Money Supply) is controlled by the central bank
- Real Money Supply = Ms / P
- Changes in price level will shift LM curve by changing the real money supply
- Purchasing power of the money supply depends on the price level (Hence Ms/P)
- r = [(c0-Ms/P)/c2]+(c1/c2)Y
- Prices go up, Ms/P goes down, as prices go up, the LM curve shifts up and to the left
- The higher the prices, the lower the level of output (GDP)

Effect on Aggregate Demand of an Increase in Ms:
- Shifts the LM curve to the right, lowering interest rates and increasing output
- Output increases for any given price level
- The effect is to shift the aggregate demand function to the right
- With classical Aggregate Supply, when Aggregate demand increases, price increases
- Is the aggregate supply function vertical? Keynes argues when the Aggregate supply function is positively sloped

ECON 10/2 Keynesian (Policy Effects in the IS-LM System)

2008-10-02T10:26:00.001-07:00

Monetary Policy shifts in the LM curve:
- Increasing money supply shifts the LM curve down and to the right
- A tax cut (rebate checks) will shift the IS curve up and to the right
- Around the same time we got our rebate checks, the FED was increasing the money supply

Interest Sensitivity:
- Keynesian though people were sensitive to interest rates
- Keynesian = Veritcal IS, Horizontal LM
- Classical = Horizontal IS, Vertical LM

Keynesian Thoughts on Fiscal Policy:
- Though fiscal policy was powerful

Policy Effectiveness:
- The relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy depend upon the slopes of the IS and LM functions
- The IS curve is steep when the interest elasticity of investment is low

READ CHAPTERS 5, 6, & 7!!

Current Events:
Big Companies say loans are hard to get:
- FED buying secondary bonds and pumping money into the financial system (banks)
- Gives banks more money to lend, but they're only lending to the US Gov't
- Banks only lending to the gov't canceled out the proposed effect of the rebate checks and allowed the system to get clogged up again
- Because of the way the financial system is operating, if we try to conduct traditional fiscal policy, we're facing a classical type LM curve (Vertical LM curve and fiscal policy isn't going to have any effect (aside from a quick boom and then back to the way we were))
- Banks are trying to avoid any risk, they have enough bad loans on their books
- Horizontal LM curve for monetary policy & Vertical LM curve for fiscal policy

ATMO 9/30 Clouds

2008-09-30T23:06:00.000-07:00

Changes in Air Parcel with Altitude:

Altitude, Temp, Dew Point, Saturated?
- 7000, -20C, -20C, Yes
- 6000, -14C, -14C, Yes
- 5000, -8C, -8C, Yes
- 4000, -2C, -2C, Yes
- 3000, 4C, 4C, Yes
- 2000, 10C, 10C, Yes
- 1000, 20C, 10C, No
- 0000, 30C, 10C, No

Clouds:
- Where air temperature in a cloud is between 0C and -40C, there exists a mixture of super cooled liquid droplets and ice crystals
- Where T > 0C, all liquid
- Where T < -40C, all ice

Cloud Seeding Experiments:
- Try to get non-precipitating clouds to precipitate
- Very little success until recent years

Types of Precipitation:
- Snow
- Rain
- Freezing Rain (Ice Storms): snow falls, melts, then freezes on contact with surfaces below freezing
- Sleet: snow falls, partially melts, and re-freezes

Stability of the Atmosphere:
- Stable: thunderstorms will not form (still may have clouds and rain)
- Unstable: Thunderstorms may form

Two General Cloud Types:
- Stratiform Type Cloud: vertically thin layers that cover large horizontal areas, tend to form in stable conditions
- Cumuliform Type Cloud: vertically tall, but horizontally small, often clear sky between cloud elements and tend to form in unstable conditions

Atmospheric Instability:
- Heated air expands and it's density is lower, forcing it to rise
- Cloud formation and the addition of latent heat cause atmospheric Instability

ECON 9/30 - Ch. 6 Keynesian System (Money, Interest, and Income)

2008-09-30T10:26:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Interest rates have spiked
- Banks won't even loan to other banks

- Higher unemployment
- Durable goods sag

The Demand for Money Equation:
- The demand for money equation shows the relationship between money demand and income and interest rates
- Md = co + c1Y - c2r

The Supply of Money:
- Controlled by the central bank (Federal Reserve)
- The Fed increases the money supply by purchasing government bonds and decreasing the money supply by selling government bonds

LM Summary:
- Shows equilibrium combination of income and interest rates in financial markets
- Slopes up and to the right
- Flat (steep) when interest elasticity of money demand is high (low)
- Shifts down (up) and to the right (left) with an increase (decrease) in money supply
- Shifts up (down) and to the left (right) when money demand increases (decreases) at given levels of income and interest rates

Equilibrium in Product Markets (The IS Curve):
- The equilibrium combination of income and interest rates that is obtained in financial markets has implications for the performance of the output sector of the economy
- The IS curve describes the combinations of income and interest rates that are consistent with equilibrium in output markets

The Investment Function:
Investment is influenced by two factors:
- Business expectations, that Keynes believed were unrelated to current income
- Interest rates, the amount of investment is inversely related to the interest rate
The investment function with these considerations is given by:
- I = I0 - i1r (i1 >0)

IS Summary:
- Shows equilibrium combination of income and interest rates in product markets
- Slopes down and to the right
- Flat (steep) when interest elasticity of investment demand is high (low)
- Shifts to the right (left) with an increase (decrease) in government spending or investment
- Shifts to the left (right) when there is an increase (decrease) in taxes
- r = [(a-bT+I0+G)/i1]-[(1-b)/i1]Y

Macroeconomic Equilibrium:
- Found by putting LM and IS on the same graph and finding their intercept point

ECON 9/25 Ch. 6 Money Supply and LM Curve

2008-09-25T10:26:00.001-07:00

Two Important Aspects of Chapter 5:
- Consumption isn't a function of interest rates, it is a function of income. As income increases, so will consumption.
- Switching from self-regulating economy to a gov't regulated economy

Chapter 6:
- Money isn't only held to buy things, there are other reason to hold money

Interest Rates and Aggregate Demand:
- Interest rates can affect a number of components of aggregate demand
- Business direct investment
- Housing construction (high short term rates raise the cost of construction, high mortgage rates decrease the demand for housing)

Wealth Allocation & Money:
- Non-interest earning and interest earning holdings
- Wh = B + M
- Wh = wealth (assets)
- B = Bond holdings (all non-money assets)
- M = money holdings
- Money is considered money held that isn't earning interest
- Money put into stocks is "speculating or speculative"
- When you make an investment you're buying into the status quo (what is happening right now, locking you into the current rates)
- Bonds have a primary and secondary market (when primary interest rates go up, bonds in the secondary market will go down)
- Interest rates and money demand are related

The Value of Holding Money:
- Although holding money doesn't earn interest, it allows the consumer freedom to pick when to invest in bonds (when the critical interest rate is right)

The Liquidity Trap:
- Generally, as interest rates fall, people move away from bonds into money holdings
- However, at very low rates of interest all increments to wealth will be held as money and further drops in the interest rate will not increase money holdings
- This situation is called the liquidity trap

The Total Demand for Money:
- Directly related to income and inversely related to interest rates
- The total demand for money is the sum of the transactions, precautionary, and speculative money

Demand for Money Equation:
- Md = co + c1Y 0 c2r
- co = autonomous money demand
- c1Y = transactions and precautionary demand (c1 > 0)
- c2r = speculative demand (c2 > 0)
- Similar to Cambridge model is you ignore "-c2r"

The Supply of Money:
- Controlled by the central bank (FED)
- Increases money supply by purchasing gov't bonds and decreases money supply by selling gov't bonds

Figure 6-6 (Equilibrium in Financial Markets (LM Curve))
- Ms0 is vertical money supply completely controlled by FED (unlike reality)
- When incomes rise, consumption increase and speculative money goes down, causing interest rates to rise
- Interest rate is a linear function of income in financial markets
- Ms = co + c1Y - c2r
- r = (co + Ms)/c2 + (c1/c2)Y (LM Curve)

Money Supply: The Policy Variable in Financial Markets
- Ms is the intercept of the LM Curve
- LM Curve shows how Ms affects the equilibrium relationship between income and interest rates in financial markets
- An increase in the money supply shifts the LM Curve down and to the right. A decrease shifts the LM Curve up and to the left
- Keynes says the LM Curve can be used to find out information, plot it, and use it to make decisions about how the economy will perform
- Not only should the government be involved, but this proves that they mechanically can be involved

The Slope of the LM Curve:
- Classical - c2 is 0 (vertical LM Curve)
- Keynes - c2 is high (more horizontal LM Curve)
- Liquidity trap has c2 of infinity (causing horizontal LM Curve)

LM Summary:
- Shows the equilibrium combinations of income and interest rates in financial markets
- Slopes up and to the right (direct relationship)
- Flat (steep) when interest elasticity of money demand is high (low)
- Shifts down (up) and to the right (left) with an increase (decrease) in money supply
- Shifts up (down) and to the left (right) when money demand increases (decreases) at given levels of income and interest rates

ATMO 9/23 Test Review

2008-09-23T14:58:00.003-07:00

Exam Topics:
- Composition: 2
- Kinetic Model: 1
- Vertical Structure: 2 (1 short answer)
- Water in Atmosphere/Phase changes: 4 (1 short answer)
- Skew-T: 3
- Move parcels up & down/Cloud formation: 2 (2 s.a.)
- Compute RH, Td: 2
- Hurricanes: 7 (2 s.a.)
- Energy transfer/human comfort: 1 (2 s.a.)

- Total Multiple Choice: 24
- Short Answer: 4/8
- Dew forms when dew point is above 0C
- Rising parcels of air cool because the parcel expands as the air pressure around it decreases
- *KNOW* RH = U (Td) / Us (T)
- *KNOW* U = RH*Us
- *BRING* Calculator!
- 500 mb level winds direct storms
- Air moves upward because of convergence in the lower troposphere (Surface Low) OR diverging air in the upper troposphere
- Storms are named at the tropical storm strength
- The lower the surface pressure, the stronger the storm
- Air pressure decreases as altitude increases because of the weight of the air above you decreases
- As altitude increases, air pressure decreases and the saturation vapor pressure decreases which allows water to boil at a lower temperature with increasing altitude
- Misters spraying water into the air causes the air temperature to drop due to evaporation and the relative humidity goes up (because U or Td is rising, and Us or T is dropping)
- Latent heat is the heat absorbed or given off by water during phase changes. (Evaporation causes heat to be removed from the lower Troposphere, and when it condenses in the upper troposphere it will release the energy, giving off latent heat) (*Use evaporation and condensation in your answer)
- Lower RH allows sweat to evaporate at a faster rate which allows the body to cool more efficiently than in higher humidities. Sitting in front of a fan can help someone suffering from hyperthermia because the increased winds increases the rate of evaporation. The fan also increases the rate of heat loss by "forced convection" (removes the thin layer of warm air around your body/skin)
- Compression causes a parcel of air to increase temperature when it's moving downward. Evaporation of rain drops also causes temperature to increase.

- Hurricanes have air converging in at the bottom and rising to diverge at the top
- The peak in the Atlantic Hurricane season is Sept. 10th
- Western North Pacific Ocean where typhoons occur is where there is the most storms
- Rising vertical air will most likely be found above a surface low
- The argument of global warming causing increasing hurricane damages is basically correct. The conclusions aren't valid because it doesn't consider the multi-decadal cycle and the presence of wind shear.
- Tends to be about 90-100 hurricanes per year even with the warmer sea surface temperatures
- Warning area is much larger than the area forecast to get hit by hurricane force winds because of the inaccuracy of forecasts. (24 hours could be 100 mile off)
- Right-front quadrant will have the most destructive winds and storm surge
- More uncertainty about strengthening or weakening than forecasting location (A cat2 could become a cat5 without much warning)

ATMO 9/23 Hurricanes Con't

2008-09-23T14:58:00.001-07:00

Storm Surge:
- Potential for damage is based on storm size and wind strengths, slope of coastline (gradual = worse surge, steep = lesser surge), and timing according to high and low tide times, also if there is a river or bay in the storm surge area
- Storm surge occurs on the right-front quadrant of the storm where the strongest forward winds are

Atlantic Hurricanes and their effect on the US:
- Peak of season is September 10th (sea surface temperatures are the highest)

Latest Active Season Linked to Global Warming?:
- General increase in sea surface temperatures
- Scientifically we can't prove there is a link
- Kerry Emanuel concluded that he found an increase in the strength of hurricanes over 35 years (not long enough to cover multiple decadal Atlantic cycle) and he's reconsidering his opinion

Growing and Building Toward Future Disasters?:
- Must include inflation, more "stuff" people have, and higher coastal populations
- Discussions as a society about whether or not to build-in and populate hurricane prone areas
- Utter stupidity (people choosing not to evacuate) causes a lot of deaths
- After we go through another period of slow activity will people forget how dangerous these storms really are?

ECON 9/23 Historic Events, Ch. 5 Keynesian Economics (Con't)

2008-09-23T10:37:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Immediate action 700 billion - 1 trillion dollar bail out of the financial sector

History:

Anti-Trust Legislation:
- Spurred by a fear that monopolies would take over the economy
- Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890: 1911 Standard Oil dissolved
- Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914: Prohibited price discrimination and unfair business practices

The Federal Reserve System:
- Third central bank in the US
- Founded by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913
- Created to deal with the financial panic (credit crisis) of 1907
- Represented a compromise between Republicans who favored a private bank and Democrats who wanted a government bank
- Young banking system with different currencies across states, then came national banks and one currency
- Who prints the money: Today it's created by the banking system as a whole (FED isn't private but isn't totally controlled by the gov't)

Banking Act of 1935 (Glass Steagall Act):
- Created the FDIC to insure deposits at commercial banks
- Separated commercial banking from investment banking
- Separation of commercial and investment banking repealed in 1999 (Gramm-Leach-Bliliey Act)

Creation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:
- Federal National Mortgage Association founded in 1938 as part of FDR's New Deal
- Designed to assist the mortgage industry by purchasing loans from financial lenders
- Encouraged an expansion in the financing for the purchase of homes
- "Privatized" in 1968 in order to remove it from the federal budget

Employment Act of 1946:
- Committed the federal government to managing economic activity through fiscal and, implicitly, monetary policy
- Requires an annual Economic Report of the President concerning the state of the economy
- Established the Council of Economic Advisors
- Created the Joint Economic Committee

Resolution Trust Corporation:
- Created in 1989 to purchase poorly performing assets from savings and loan associations
- Total cost of the bail out is estimated to be $125 billion

Equilibrium Income:
- Y = E = C + I + G (substituting C = a + bYD)
- Yields: See Keynesian Economics Power point on D2L, Slide titled "Equilibrium Income"
Graph:
- Income (output) on X axis
- Consumption (expenditures) on Y axis
- Slope = b (positive slope, as income increases so does consumption)
- Add investment and gov't spending and it shifts C up
- Add the "Keynesian Cross" (45 degree line from origin) indicates equilibrium at the point where the line and consumption cross

The Marginal Propensity to Consume and Multiplier Values:
- The multiplier varies inversely with the marginal propensity to save (1-b)
- Multiplier = 1/(1-b)
- A small change in investment causes a ripple effect downstream, and the small change is multiplied

Changes in Autonomous C, I, & G:
- Multiply the change in C, I, or G by the multiplier to get the change in national income (Delta Y)
- Offset investment fall by increasing gov't spending or increasing consumption by the same amount
- Logic is easy, if one decreases, increase another

Changes in Autonomous Taxes:
- Taxes differ from other autonomous categories in two ways: (1) taxes influence national income negatively, rising taxes reduce national income (2) Taxes reduce both savings consumption, rising taxes reduce consumption by less than the full increase in taxation
- Explicit purpose is to use gov't spending and taxes to increase national income (it doesn't matter where you spend the money, just that the money gets spent)

Fiscal Stabilization:
- Keynes believed that volatility in investment caused business cycles
- He also believed that investment changes could be offset by compensating changes in government spending and taxation
- Fiscal Stabilization is the use of changes in gov't purchases and taxes to stabilize aggregate economic activity

Figure 5-8:
- Investment falls but gov't spending rises (no tax differences) = no change in equilibrium

Introducing the International Sector:
- An economy that engages in international trade sells some of it's production overseas (exports) and consumes some production that is produced in other countries (import)
- Y = E = C + I + G + X + Z (X = exports & Y = imports)
- Increasing imports decreases GDP
- Increasing exports increases GDP
- Multiplier with International Sector: 1/(1-b+v)
- Imports cause the multiplier to be smaller and the economy is smaller

ATMO 9/18 Hurricanes

2008-09-18T13:46:00.001-07:00

Hurricane Structure:
- Eye: calm area with few clouds ranging from 5-125 miles, averaging 20-40 miles
- Eye Wall: Most intense winds and clouds
- Core of Strong Winds: 50-300 miles

- Winds rise around the eye wall and sink in the center of the eye
- Low pressure in the center of the storm
- Warm core from condensation and cloud formation (warm from release of latent heat)
- Eye wall Replacement Cycle: the eye wall closes in on itself while weakening and then as it's replaced by an eye wall forming outside the collapsing one the storm will most likely strengthen
- Outer or Spiral Rain Bands
- Out flow of air at the top of the storm

Formation and Dissipation:
- We still don't know everything about hurricanes and intense amounts of research is being done to try to understand the storms

Requirements:
- Warm, Humid surface air and an unstable atmosphere
- Warm ocean surface waters (T > 80F, 26.5C) and a depth of warm water > 60 m or 200 ft
- Pre-existing large-scale surface convergence and/or upper-level divergence
- Must be 4 degrees of latitude away from the equator to have counter-clockwise rotating winds (from Coriolis force)
- Absence of strong vertical wind shear

Importance of No Vertical Wind Shear:
- Wind Shear: when winds change in speed and/or direction with increasing altitude
- Wind shear inhibits stacked convection and can "rip" tropical storms apart

Wind Shear Example:
- Wind speed increases as altitude increases (stronger winds as you go further up into the atmosphere)
- Spreads the latent heat over a larger area preventing a concentrated warm core

- The rate at which air pressure decreases with increasing altitude depends on air temperature in the vertical column of air. The warmer the air, the slower the rate of pressure decrease.

Steering Hurricanes:
- At any one time, the high pressure regions are separated into elongated cells. Breaks in cells allow storms to be steering away from the tropics
- Above 30 degrees latitude, storms pick up speed as the steering level winds become stronger
- The bermuda high plays a strong role in steering US land falling hurricanes

Forecasters Must Predict:
- Future storm position
- Future storm intensity (usually more difficult)
- Forecasts have gotten much more accurate but they are still round 100 miles off for 24 hour position forecasts

Hurricane Dangers:
- Strong winds
- Heavy rains
- Storm surges
- Tornados

Storm Surge:
- The rise in sea level along a coast as on shore winds pile up the water. More like a big dome of water rather than big waves. In the northern hemisphere, the greatest storm surge and strongest winds occur to the right of the storm center (with respect to the direction the storm is moving).

Winds:
- Counter-clockwise winds cause right-front side of the storm to have the on shore winds of say 100 mph, add in the speed the entire storm is moving (20 mph), the front-right quadrant has 120 mph winds. The front-left quadrant has offshore winds of 100 mph, subtract the speed the entire storm is moving (20 mph), the front-left quadrant has 80 mph winds.

ECON 9/18 Keynesian Theory (Aggregate)

2008-09-18T10:37:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Mortgage rate drop short lived even though government bailed out Fannie May and Freddie Mac
- FED to keep interest rates where they are

Keynesian Theory:

Unemployment rate during the Great Depression:
- From 3% to 26% max and back down, up and down

The Central Concept:
- Equilibrium production requires output to equal aggregate demand or Y = E (where E is aggregate demand)
- For the domestic economy (no international sector), aggregate demand is: E = C + I + G (where C is consumption, I is investment, and G is government purchases)

Assumptions and Equilibrium Conditions:
- Price changes are ignored in chapter 5-7 and all variables are expressed in real terms
- I is intended (or planned) investment and Ir, is realized investment

In Equilibrium:
- Y = E = C + I + G = C + S + T
- S + T = I + G
- Ir = I

Adjustment to Disequilibrium:
- When Y > E and Ir > I there is unintended inventory accumulation
- Unintended inventory accumulation prompts reduced production which can lead to increased unemployment
- When Y < E and Ir < I there is unintended inventory shortfall
- Unintended inventory shortfall prompts increased production which can lead to increased employment

Consumption:
- Consumption function - the Keynesian relationship between income and consumption
- C = a + bYD
- Where a = autonomous consumption expenditure, b = marginal propensity to consume, 0 < b < 1, 1-b = marginal propensity to save, Yd is disposable income (Y subscript capitol D)

Saving function:
- S = -a + ( 1 - b ) YD

Investment:
- Investment is highly volatile and is the primary cause of business cycles in the Keynesian system
- Keynes believed that managers based investment decisions on expectations
- Expectations change over time and therefore investment decisions vary over time as well

Expectations:
- Managers tend to extrapolate past trends into the future
- Managers tend to conform to the behavior of the majority or average of their peers
- Consequently, investment "being based on so flimsy a foundation, it is subject to sudden and violent changes."

Table 5-1, Consumption and Investment as a Percentage of GNP, Selected Years
- Consumption is a stable function of income
- Investment changes abruptly over time, going up and down with no relative correlation

ATMO 9/16: Clouds, Rising Air, Hurricane Intro

2008-09-16T13:44:00.001-07:00

Current Weather:
Hurricane/Tropical Storm/Depression Ike:
- Damage in the billions, however only 40 lives were lost due to good planning and evacuation procedures. Caused flooding from significant rains in St. Louis, MO.

Calendar/Time line:
- Homework #2 due in one week (Tues 9/27)
- Test 1 next Thursday (Thurs 9/29)
- Next Tuesday reserved for going over material on test 1

Summary of how water behaves:
- If RH = 100% (Td = T), there will be no net evaporation or condensation, since rate of evaporation = rate of condensation
- If RH < 100% (Td < T), any liquid water present will evaporate, since rate of evap. is greater than the rate of cond.
- If RH > 100% (Td > T), water vapor will condense to liquid water until the RH falls back to 100% (Rate of cond. is greater than rate of evap.) When this occurs it is. temporary until sufficient water vapor condenses. - Condensation will take place: 1st onto existing liquid. surface, if available. 2nd onto solid surfaces (dew), and 3rd onto cloud condensation nuclei (clouds)

Boiling Pot of Water Example:
- Air parcel that is very warm and nearly saturated just above the water in the pot
- As air parcels move away from the heat source, they cool (T decreasing)
- As they cool, there is more water vapor than the saturation amount (at lower temperature) so condensation occurs on CCN (steam)
- As steam parcels move away, they mix with drier air and the air surrounding the droplets is no longer saturated so the droplets evaporate
- RH goes from less than 100%, to 100+%, then back to less than 100%

Rising Air Cools, Explained:
- A parcel of air has an internal pressure equal to that of the surrounding air
- As a parcel of air is elevated, it's volume increases and pressure decreases to equal the surrounding air
- Energy is expended by the parcel to increase it's size, so temperature decreases
- Vice versa with a falling parcel, energy is absorbed by the surrounding air, so temperature increases
- Further lifting causing further expansion which causes further cooling

Conditions for Cloud Formation:
- Surface heating and free convection: ground heats lowest layer of air and convection occurs
- Surface convergence: air converging at the surface causes air to rise (Surface low pressure centers)
- Surface divergence: surface high pressure centers
- Upper-Level Divergence: air diverging in the atmosphere causing air to rise from below to fill "the void" of the diverged air (Tropopause doesn't allow air to fall into upper-level diverging air, it must rise from below)
- Topography lifting: Mountains causing air to rise which causes clouds to form, clear skies on the far side of the mountain
- Frontal boundaries: Warm air rises over cold frontal boundaries, causing clouds from up drafts and rain in down drafts

Precipitation:
- Clouds normally cover 60% of the Earth at any one time, not all are causing rain or snow though
- Average sized cloud droplets are 0.02mm in diameter (sub visible), average sized rain drop is 2mm.

Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes:

Tropical Weather:
- Very little seasonal change and night/day change
- Warm oceans cover the majority of the tropics, resulting in net evaporation and cloud/storm formation
- Tropical "Waves": Convergence on the eastern side of the wave with divergence to the west of the convergence

Trade Winds:
- 30N-0: Northern hemisphere has NE Trade Winds
- 30S-0: Southern hemisphere has SE Trade Winds
- Intratropical Convergence Zone (centered on equator but moves slightly with seasons)

Tropical Cyclones:
- Surface low pressure system over tropical waves
- Tropical Depression: <39 mph surface winds
- Tropical Storm (named): 39-74 mph
- Hurricane: 74+mph
- Typhoon: used in the north Pacific Ocean
- Severe Tropical Cyclone: SW Pacific Ocean
- Severe Cyclonic Storm: Indian Ocean

- Tropical Storms are the only natural disasters that get their own names due to their longevity

- Tropical Cyclones have central low pressure at surface
- In Northern Hemisphere, surface winds rotate counter-clockwise and converge toward the low center
- Wind speed is determined by how rapidly the air pressure changes along the horizontal surface (how low the pressure at the center of the storm is, the lower the center pressure, the stronger the winds)

ATMO 9/11 RH, Td, Energy Transfer, Human Comfort (Temp, Humidity, Wind), & Clouds

2008-09-11T13:43:00.001-07:00

Current Weather:
Hurricane Ike:
- Upper level winds expanded when it entered the Gulf of Mexico
- Hurricane Warning over a large area of Texas and Louisiana coasts because of forecasting uncertainty

Announcements:
- HW #1 grades posted
- HW #2 posted, DUE: Tuesday, Sept. 23rd
- Old Exams from 07' posted under "Old Exams" menu button. Only guidelines for the type of questions, not the exact questions.
- EXAM 1: Thursday, Sept. 25th

Dew Point:
- Dew Point temp. does indicate the actual amount of water in the air
- When T and Td are far apart, RH is low and vice versa
- RH = U/Us, NOT T/Td
- Morning is when RH is the highest and is the best time to water plants
- Near the earth's surface the RH is relatively low

Condensation Near the Earth's Surface:
- Fog (Clouds close to the ground)
Dew & Frost:
- Dew: If the object is colder than the dew point temperature you end up with net condensation appearing on the object (your car)
- Frost: If the object is colder than the dew point and the object is lower than the point of freezing. Deposition: frost occurs from deposition, which is water vapor straight to ice, it skips the liquid stage

Example:
- Suppose Td = 40F
- Two cans, 1 is cold, 35F, 1 is warm, 45F
- The 35F can is cooler than the dew point, causing water vapor in the air surrounding it to condense onto the can forming liquid droplets of water on the outside of the can
- The 45F can is warmer than the dew point so no condensation occurs

T and Td:
- When T and Td are far apart in the early morning, RH is low
- When T and Td are close together in the afternoon, RH is higher

Energy Transfer:
- Warming required addition of energy
- Cooling requires removal of energy
- Energy always flows from the warmer object to the cooler object

Radiation:
= Transmission of energy through space or through a material in the form of electromagnetic waves
- All objects in the universe emit radiation
- Example: Rock in space - Rock is loosing energy by emitting radiation, the rock is also gaining energy by absorbing radiation from nearby stars
- The ground heats by absorbing more radiation than it emits during the day, until the afternoon when emitted radiation exceeds absorbed radiation as the sun sets

Conduction:
- Poor conductors are also known as heat insulators

Rate of Conductive Heat Transfer:
- Depends on temp differences between the two objects
- Conductivity of the material

Double-Paned Window Example:
- Air sandwiched between to layers of glass to slow conduction of air outside from air inside

Convection:
Dry Convection:
- Natural - warm air rising, cold air sinking (Thermal (rising parcels of air that birds and gliders can gain altitude with))
- Forced - Winds stir up the air, mixing it around. This partially explains why a fan can cool you...The fan blows the thin layer of air next to your skin which insulates you causing heat loss to occur at a faster rate

Moist Convection:
- Involves a phase change of water (Liquid water evaporating into water vapor, transferring the energy from the evaporation location (usually near the surface of the earth) to the condensation location (usually high in the atmosphere where clouds form))
- Energy is removed at the surface and added in the atmosphere where the cloud forms

Effects of the Wind:
- The rate of net evaporation rises when the wind blows the air near the surface away

Temperature, Humidity, Winds, & Human Comfort:
- Thermoregulation: the bodies process of balancing internal heat generation and external heat exchange so that it's core temp varies by no more than 2C from it's average of 37C. "Core" refers to vital organs, if the temp gets too far from 37C essential life functions do not work properly.

Response to cold core temperatures:
- Increase internal heat production by shivering (involuntarily muscle contractions)
- Reduce heat loss by vasoconstrictions (constrict blood vessels in outer extremities). Can lead to frost bite of extremities (freezing of skin).

Response to high core temperatures:
- Sweating - body is cooled by evaporation. By far the best way to loose heat, and the only means by which humans can live for long periods of time when the air temp exceeds body temp
- Increase heat loss by vasodialation (widening of blood vessels)

Hypothermia & Hyperthermia:
- Know definitions and what you can do for others suffering from these conditions

Influence of weather conditions on human body heat loss:
- In hot conditions and high humidity the rate of evaporation is slowed down by the high humidity

Heat Index:
- Not the temperature! In a way it's stating the rate of heat loss for a general human body

Wind Chill:
- Just a number! In a way it's stating the rate of heat loss for a general human body from exposed skin (wear clothes! Best is several layers of loose fitting clothing as the air trapped in between acts as an insulator)
- Wet clothing or skin will make the wind chill effect even worse

Clouds:
= A visible assembling of water droplets or ice crystals in the air
- May contain 3,000 droplets per cubic inch!
- Clouds are not water vapor, which is an invisible gas
- There must be a surface available for water vapor to condense on (Cloud Condensation Nuclei or microscopic aerosols)
- There is never a shortage of CCN

9/11 Ch. 4 Classical Macroeconomics (Gov't Spending, Interest Rates, Effects of Investment)

2008-09-11T10:38:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
Study: Speculators caused oil price surge
- Oil futures cannot affect the current price of oil because they are future prices, not current supply or demand and not current prices.
- Change in the oil prices had to do with current supply and demand

Oil Prices Dip, OPEC to cut output by 500 kb/d:
- Falling prices cause producers to cut back supply to equalize prices and stop the prices from falling any further

Websites:
BLS.gov
BEA.gov
NewYorkFED.gov
BP.com

BP.com:
- Supply down by 126 kb/d and demand rising by 1 mb/d
- Of course prices are going to go up!

NewYorkFED:
- Rising value of the dollar as compared to the Euro good for exports

*3-5 Test questions on current events*

Ch. 3 Important Stuff:
- Real factors of production, capitol, resources, technology, labor
- Full employment can be maintained because of a flexible economy. As prices rise, demand for labor goes up, money wages go up, increasing labor demand, however employment stays about the same because the real wage is the same...maintaining full employment.
- Stability arising because of flexibility of wages and prices

Interest Rate Determination in the Classical System:
- Increase the money supply, the aggregate demand increases, considering supply is constant in the short run, prices will inflate due to the money supply being increased
- *Figure 4.3 Important* (Interest Rates and Loanable Funds including Gov't Spending)
- Classical Economists said if people just wanted to buy more stuff, or the gov't wanted to buy more stuff the equilibrium interest rate would balance everything
- Consumption is 2/3s of our economic activity
- If consumption goes up, saving falls (Disposable income = consumption and saving)
- Investment will fall just the amount that consumption fell, due to less savings causing interest rates going up and fewer profitable investment opportunities
- Change in gov't spending: Increases in spending can be covered by taxes, borrowing, and creating money
- Creating Money: Increasing the money supply which causes aggregate demand to increase which in turn inflates prices
- Borrowing: Total investment goes up causing interest rates to rise and private investment falls (fewer profitable investment opportunities). Crowding Out: gov't spending crowding out private investment. As interest rates go up, saving goes up and consumption goes down. There is no net affect of gov't spending because of the offsets in private investment and consumption.
- Great Depression lasted so long because the gov't didn't increase spending enough and consumption didn't fall enough and saving didn't rise enough.

Logic of Classical Model:
- *Interest Rates*: consumption, investment, and savings all rely on interest rates
- *Creating Money*: is inflationary because it increases aggregate demand
- **FOR THE TEST, STICK WITH THE LOGIC ABOVE THAT WAS PART OF THE CLASSICAL MODEL**

Gov't Spending Funded by Taxation:
- Disposable income goes down, causing consumption and saving to go down, causing interest rates to go up, causing investment to fall.
- The decrease in consumption and investment offset the increase in gov't spending and aggregate demand is unchanged

Supply-Side Effect of Income Tax:
- Increasing marginal income taxes reduces disposable income (after tax value of the real wage)
- The reduction in the after-tax value of the real wage shifts the labor supply Curve up and to the left
- Taxes go up, taking less money home, labor supply goes down, causing a real affect on production (goes down)
- Falling labor supply shifts the aggregate supply function to the left, reducing equilibrium output

Short/Long Run Effects of Investment:
- Short Run: investment increases, causing interest rates to go up, savings increases and consumption falls, and there is no net change in aggregate demand
- Long Run: capital formation increases aggregate supply and the equilibrium level of production
- Short Run investments are offset by a decline in consumption, where-as in the long run capacity is increased which increases aggregate supply

**Test 1 on Tuesday 9/16**
- Pencil and Eraser, you can write on the exam
- NO CALCULATOR: math questions will be simple

Chapter 1:
- Will require some memorization
- Ballpark unemployment rates of the past and current comparisons
- 50s-60s were considered the golden era, high growth rates and low unemployment rates, low inflation rates
- 70s-80s were bad times, high unemployment, high inflation rates
- Post WWII history

Test will ask comparison questions between the past and today

- What is GDP, what makes up GDP?
- What are the 3 components of Investment?
- 2/3s of GDP is made up of consumption

Chapter 2:
- Real GDP = Nominal GDP / GDP Deflator
- Why do we use Real GDP? So we can compare different years without inflation getting in the way
- Price Indexes: where is inflation and how do we use price indexes to calculate inflation?
- Relationships between GDP and NDP (related by depreciation and taxes)
- Chain weighted GDP to avoid problems with substitution effects of goods over time
- Intermediate goods not counted in GDP because of double counting problem

Chapter 3/4:
- Analytical
- Maintain logical thought of the classical system/economists
- Importance of flexibility of wages, prices, interest rates, and the rigid vertical supply Curve
- Changes in everything else keep aggregate demand stable with flexible interest rates

ATMO 9/9 Evaporation, Condensation, Relative Humidity, & Dew Point

2008-09-09T13:41:00.001-07:00

Current Weather:

Hurricane Ike:
- Forecasts not exact
- Moved over Cuba and weakened due to high mountain ranges and being over land

Evaporation & Condensation
- Rate of evaporation
- Rate of condensation
- Competing processes happening simultaneously

*Homework assigned between Today & Thursday*

Closed System Evaporation and Condensation Example:
- 20C constant temp
- Water in the bottom evaporates, as the vapor pressure increases the rate of condensation increases until the two process are at equilibrium (Saturated air, constant vapor pressure = saturation vapor pressure)
- If temp is increased, the rate of evaporation increases and the vapor pressure rises, causing the rate of condensation to increase. This is also true in the opposite direction (net condensation).
- Saturation: the maximum amount of water vapor that can exist in the air (capacity for water vapor). As temperature increases, the saturation vapor pressure increases sharply.
- "Warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air." Translation: The warmer the air, the higher the capacity for water vapor in the air.
- Dynamic Equilibrium means evaporation and condensation are happening at the same rate.

Water Vapor Pressure Graph:
- Water Vapor (Y)
- Temperature (X)
- What amount of water vapor can be in the air at certain temperatures?
- As temperature increases, the maximum amount of water vapor pressure increases exponentially. (50F & 12mb as to 86F & 42mb)
- When water boils the saturation vapor pressure is 1013mb (equal to the surrounding air pressure) and the water can evaporate to vapor
- Water boils at lower temperatures higher in the atmosphere because the air pressure is lower and the saturation vapor pressure is lower.

Water Vapor in the Atmosphere:
- Air Parcel concept

Relative Humidity:
= water vapor content / water vapor capacity
- 100% the air is saturated
- 50% the air contains half of the amount of water vapor as it can contain

Mixing Ratio / Saturation Mixing Ratio:
- Mixing Ratio = U = actual (measured) mass of water vapor (in a parcel) in grams / mass of dry (remaining) air (in parcel) in kilograms
- Saturation Mixing Ratio = Us = mass of water vapor that the parcel would contain if saturated in grams / mass of dry (remaining) air in parcel in kilograms
- Mixing ratio very close to vapor pressure
- Saturation ratio very close to saturation vapor pressure
- Using grams/kilogram the numbers aren't very small fractions or decimals

Relative Humidity:
- RH = actual (measured) water vapor in parcel / mass of water vapor required for parcel to be saturated
- Can also think of this as (water vapor content / maximum possible water vapor content)
- RH in terms of mixing ratios = U / Us
- Us: get it from table of saturation mixing ratios and it depends on the temperature
- You cannot use RH to tell the absolute amount of water vapor in the air. It only tells you how close the air is to being saturated. U is the absolute amount of water vapor in the air

Two ways to change the amount of RH:
- Change the amount of water vapor (U)
- Change the air temperature (Us)

Dew Point Temperature (Td):
= The temperature to which you would need to cool an air parcel in order for it to become saturated or RH = 100%
- The dew point temperature is determined by the amount of water vapor (U)
- As U increases, the dew point temperature increases
- Dew Point is directly related to the amount of water vapor in the air. When the temperature and dew point temperature are equal, the air is saturated and RH is 100%

Use of Saturation Mixing Ratio Table:
- Given an air temp, T, the corresponding entry in the table is the Saturation Mixing Ratio, Us
- There is also a correspondence between dew point temp, Td, and the mixing ratio, U
- T <-> Us
- Td <-> YOU

- If T = 10C and RH =50%, what is Td?
- Us = 7.6 g/kg
- Manipulate RH = U/Us
- U = RH*Us
- U = .5*7.6
- U = 3.8 k/kg
- Td = U = 3.8 k/kg = 0C = Td
- Td = 0C

ECON 9/9 Ch. 4 - Classical Macroeconomics (Cont. Money, Prices, & Interest)

2008-09-09T10:30:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Unemployment to rise from 5.7 to 6.1 this year, up to 7% by fall 2009
- Treasury to rescue Fannie, Freddy: injecting capitol into these companies so that they have enough capitol to continue operation and to drive down interest rates. The FED lowering rates didn't cause people to invest in mortgage type investments (seems risky after what happened).
- Fannie May: big deal for a gov't sponsored mortgage lending company. The gov't has yet to decide whether or not the organizations need to remain gov't controlled or be restructured. Mortgage rates projected to fall to 5.25-5.5 percent.
- Professors opinion: you don't need a gov't sponsored lending company, it should be a free, private market. Continual bail-out of companies may create problems down the road, companies should fail in the free market system.. Most of the current situation has been brought on by past gov't intervention. (All opinion from the professor)

Upcoming TEST 1 (9/14/08):
- Know what's going on with GDP, inflation, current events, and read the book and your notes...don't rely on the slides posted on D2L.

Classical Macroeconomics (Money, Prices, & Interest):
- Focusing on aggregate demand in chapter 4, we focused on aggregate supply in chapter 3
- Aggregate supply stabilized through labor supply. Aggregate demand stabilized through the loanable funds market.
- Irving Fisher established the equation of why people want money? To buy things...transactions demand money.
- Turn-over of money: recirculates and is reused
- Velocity of Money - rate at which money turns over in GDP transactions during a given period of time.
- Quantity Theory - the classical theory that states that he price level is proportional to the quantity of money in circulation.

Equation of Exchange (An identity):
- MVt = PtT
- Developed by Irving Fisher
- M = quantity of money
- V = Velocity of money
- P = price level
- T = volume of transactions

Equation of Exchange and GDP:
- If all transactions are for current production then the equation of exchange can be written: MV=PY where Y=GDP (Nominal)
- V is determined by institutional factors and does not change in the short run and Y is fixed by production conditions
- In this case, the price level is determined by the quantity of money
- The velocity of money is relatively stable in the short run because the money supply is created, maintained, and controlled by institutions
- GDP is also fixed (vertical line on short run graph)
- Considering these two above conditions, if money goes up, the price level goes up and vice versa (in the short run).

The Cambridge Approach:
- A version of the quantity theory that focuses on the demand for money
- Developed by Alfred Marshall and A.C. Pigou
- Md = kPY (A manipulation of Fisher's equation)
- Md = money demand
- k = proportion of income held as money
- k = 1/V
- This has to do with behavioral relationships, where-as Fisher's equation wasn't' behavioral

Money and Prices, The Cambridge Explanation:
- Starting at equilibrium (money demand equals money supply), suppose the stock of money increases
- The increase in the quantity of money creates an excess supply of money
- Individuals react by increasing consumption and investment spending
- Demand for commodities rises and prices rise because production is fixed

Aggregate Demand:
- The quantity theory is an implicit theory of aggregate demand
- Demand is a relationship between the price level and the quantity individuals are willing and able to buy
- Using the quantity theory this is expressed as P = (VM)/Y
- The price level, P, and GDP, Y, are inversely related (See figure 4.2)
- As money and demand are increased, price levels rise because output is constant in the short run

Shifts in Aggregate Demand:
- Increase in demand causes price levels to rise and vice versa

Money and Hyperinflation:
- 1985-1995
- Prices rising almost equally to money rise

Classical Interest Rate Theory (Not controversial):
- Saving is directly related to interest rates
- Consumption is inversely related to interest rates
- Investment is inversely related to interest rates

Gov't funds:
- Taxation
- Borrowing in the loanable funds market (tends to increase interest rates)
- Money creation (from FED)

Demand for Loanable Funds:
- Demand for loanable fund shows the relationship between the interest rate and the amount of borrowing
- Borrowing is composed of borrowing for: Private investment & Gov't purchases
- Gov't and businesses borrow by selling bonds
- Borrowing is inversely related to the interest rate

Figure 4.3 Interest Rate determination in the Classical System:
- With gov't borrowing it drives investment and interest rates up. It also crowds out some private investment (less profitable investments at higher interest rates).
- Not everything has the same ROI, at higher interest rates certain projects get cut off. At higher interest rates some profitable opportunities are no longer profitable.

ATMO 9/4 Skew-T, Humidity, and Dewpoint

2008-09-04T14:26:00.001-07:00

Current Weather:
- TS Hannah forecasts are not so accurate, lingering around the Caribbean islands
- Hurricane Ike Cat 4, strengthened much more than forecasted and much quicker

Skew-T Diagram:
- Weather balloons (radiosondes) launched twice per day from various weather observing stations at 0000 UTC (00Z) and at 1200 UTC (12Z) (UTC = Universal time coordinated)
- Tucson local time is 7 hours earlier than UTC, so radiosondes are launching at 5PM the day before, and 5AM the day of
- #'s right of the y-axis are meters above sea level
- Barbs: Flags are 50 knots, long barbs are 10 knots, short barbs are 5 knots
- Wind Direction: Main post which barbs stick off of, points in the direction in which the wind is coming from. The barb shows the direction the wind is blowing toward the center (circle) of the symbol
- Surface temp changes much more than at 500mb (~5900ft) day to day

Water in the Atmosphere: Condensation and Evaporation
- Internal energy per gram of water (greatest to least): gas, liquid, ice
- The more energy the more unorganized the molecules become
- To go from a lower to a higher energy phase, you need to add energy to the water and vice versa
- Latent heat: energy added to or removed from water as it changes phase, there is no measurable change in the temperature of water
- Sensible heat: the energy added or removed from water that results in a temperature change
- Calorie: a unit of energy for measuring energy. 1 calorie= amount of energy to raise the temp of 1 gram of liquid water by 1C
- In dietary science: 1 dietary calorie = 1,000 scientific energy measurement calories
- 1g of ice at -100C takes 50 calories to raise it to 0C (sensible heating process, hasn't changed phase yet). Add 80 calories to the 1g of ice, you get 1g of liquid water at 0C (latent heating process, changed phases (melted)). Add 100 calories to the 1g of water, you get 1g of water at 100C (sensible heating process, water heated). Add 600 calories, you get 1g of water vapor (gas) at 100C (latent heating, phase change, no temp. Increase (evaporation). Reversing this process is done with the same amount of energy (calories) in reverse (removing energy or condensation, freezing).
- Phase changes from adding energy is supplied from surrounding environment. If the energy is supplied from the surrounding environment, the surrounding environment looses energy and cools. Example: Evaporating Sweat (energy supplied from your skin or the air around your skin, causing a cooling feeling)
- Phase changes from removing energy is supplied from the surrounding environment, causing the surrounding environment to heat up. Typically happens where clouds form via condensation and heating the air around the cloud.. - Evaporation cools the surrounding environment, condensation warms the surrounding environment.
- Evaporation and condensation can happen at any temperature between 0C and 100C

Vapor Pressure:
- The pressure caused by water molecules only, not any other elements
- The higher the vapor pressure, the more water molecules there are in the air

Rate of Evaporation:
- The number of water molecules that change phase from liquid to gas each second (or unit of time). Depends highly on the temp. at the liquid water surface, the higher the temp, the higher the rate.

Rate of Condensation:
- The number of water molecules that change phase from gas to liquid each second (or unit of time). Depends highly on the vapor pressure of the air above the liquid surface. The higher the vapor pressure, the higher the rate of condensation.

ECON 9/4 Classical Macroeconomics (Cont. The Production Function)

2008-09-04T10:32:00.001-07:00

Current Events:
- Fed's interest rates holding steady around 2%
- Expansion of the money supply is inflationary
- NY Fed bank website
- Market up, down ahead of jobs report
- Hedge fund fails as bubble bursts: bets on commodity prices rising caused Hedge fund to fail, down 40% YTD. Inelastic demand curve of gas caused prices to go up in the beginning of the summer as supply was down, just as prices fell because supply went up at the end of the summer.

The Production Function:
- Demand theory is relatively the same between economic theories
- As real wages fall, employment will increase and vice versa.
- Diminishing Marginal Product can't tell you how many workers to hire just based on productivity, you need earnings and wages. Hire people up to the point where you're making more money than you're paying your employee (not counting other expenses). W (wage) /P (price per item sold) = N (real wage)
Inverse relationship between demand and the real wage ( W/P=N) Use N to determine the number of workers based on MPN

Labor Supply
- Classical economists assumed that the substitution effect dominated the income effect so that workers will want to supply more labor at higher real wages and less labor at lower real wages.
- Works best when applied to piece work or commission based pay
- Substitution effect: people want money and time off, if the wage rises the price of leisure goes up (time off costs money)
- Income effect: as my income goes up, I don't have to work as much...or I'm able to buy more normal goods (leisure goods)
- In today's world, the income effect is more dominant (but not in the classical Marco view)

Labor Market Equilibrium
- Labor supply is equal to labor demand
- The equilibrium determines the real wage paid to labor
- In the short run, this equilibrium value of labor usage determines the output level for a given stock of capital
- Kaynes agreed with this

What will happen if prices double or triple and wages remain the same?
- Demand for labor increases as prices go up
- Labor supply decreases, people become more valuable to companies and they want more of them...substitution effect kicks in and the price of leisure goes down, people start working less (creates an excess demand for labor, above equilibrium)... Wages have to be pushed up so real wage doesn't drop as much (Flexible wage hypothesis)
- If prices start to fall, workers are less valuable...substitution effect says people want to work more because the leisure time causes too much of a loss in wages
- Money wages get pushed up when prices go up, and vice versa
- Classical economists concluded that labor will stay constant as long as prices and wages fall or rise together
- Flexible Wage Theory (Kaynes disagreed)
- Kaynes said if price go up, people will act the same as if their wages were cut. Just as if prices fall, they will act as if their wages increased
- People will react to prices changing by adjusting their labor supply

Consequences for Production when Money Wages are Flexible
- If money wages change in response to changes in the price level then price changes will have little or no impact on the aggregate level of production

Aggregate Supply
- Vertical curve, stays the same over different prices over the short run (price-quantity graph)
- Output depends on labor force size, facilities

ATMO 9/2 Atmosphere and Human Response

2008-09-02T13:43:00.001-07:00

- Current Weather
- Hurricanes / Tropical Storms
- Gustav weakened, dissipating and Hannah not where she was forecasted, further south than forecast but should start heading north, northwest
- Ike: Headed toward Cuba in the next 5 days

Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere
Temperature
- 0C by ~3,000 meters
- Tropopause
- Iso thermal (constant temp.) layer above troposphere
- Separates troposphere from stratosphere
- Acts like a "lid" on rising air motion, clouds are confined below tropopause in the troposphere
- Jet stream exists in this layer (10-11km)

- Stratosphere
- Temp. increases as altitude increases
- Ozone causes this temp increase (absorbs UV radiation from sunlight, not a lot of Ozone, just higher than average amounts than anywhere else)
- Protects surface inhabitants from UV radiation

Density
- Number Density: The number of gas molecules per unit volume (About 2.7X10^19 molecules / cm^3 OR 4.4X10^20 molecules / in^3
- More empty space than space taken up by molecules
- Column of Air Example (From Sea Level to Top of Atmosphere)
- Air pushes down on the earth with a force equal to the weight of the entire column of air
- Higher up, the force is much less (less air above)
- Gases, like air, are easily compressed, ie, squeeze it together and it's number density increases
- Air near the earth's surface is compressed by all of the air above, making it more dense. Moving upward from the surface, the air density generally decreases because there is less and less weight pushing down from above.

Pressure
- Air Pressure: From a microscopic view, each time a gas molecule collides with a surface it gives a little "push". The sum total of all the collisions on the surface is air pressure. (Force per area)
- Column of Air Example
- 1" Square column of air from sea level to top of atmosphere
- Air pressure due to weight of air above any chosen point (At sea level: 14.7 lbs / sq. Inch OR 1013mb (millibars))
- Sea Level Pressure range: 980-1013mb
- Air Pressure is caused by the weight of air pushing down from above. Therefore, air pressure must decrease as you move upward, since there is less weight pushing down from above.
- Average pressure in Tucson at 2,500' is 930mb
- 5.5km (18,000 feet) average air pressure is about 500mb (half way through the atmosphere)
- MT. Everest 8.8km (22k') 300mb
- Top of troposphere 11km 250mb
- Since air is a fluid, at any point in the atmosphere the pressure is equal in all directions (up, down, left, right from a given point)

Fraction of Atmosphere Above You By Weight
- Measured Air Pressure At Your Location / Sea Level Pressure (~1,000mb)
- Mt. Lemmon = 730mb, ~30% of the atmosphere is below you

Water and Air
- Water is not compressible, so the pressure increase/decrease is linear (constant density)

Hydrostatic Balance
- Air pressure at any given point in the atmosphere is exactly enough to support the column of air above it.

The Atmosphere and The Weather (Effects on Human Body)
- Humans can survive up to about 20,000 ft above sea level, above this level the body starts to suffer from Hypoxia (brain not getting enough oxygen)
- Ear Popping: Pressure differences between inner ear and outer ear canal separated by the ear drum.

ECON 9/2 Classical Macroeconomics (Output and Employment)

2008-09-02T10:41:00.001-07:00

- Current Event - Rebound to be short lived::
Economy pulled out of rough patch due to strong exports, however economic slow downs overseas will most likely put us in a rough patch later this year.
The economy grew 3.3% in the past few months, however it shrunk for the last quarter of 2007.

- 2007 Growth Rates
Negative in quarter 4, positive in 08' Q1, technically not a recession (need 2 quarters of negative growth)

- Unemployment
Not getting worse from where we are

- Test Questions
Inflation Rate, 2nd quarter growth, GDP growth rates (nominal and real), general knowledge of what's going on in the economy (especially for optimal business performance)

- Classical Macroeconomics (Output and Employment)
The Classical Revolution
Developed during the 19th century in response to the economic doctrines known as mercantilism
- The wealth of a nation depends on it's stock of precious metals
- The state is needed to control and direct the economic system
Radical revolution when it was said that economic systems run best when no one is in charge (free market)
Democracy and Free Market came around the same time

- Classical Views (Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations)
In contrast, classical economists emphasized:
- The real nature of the production of nation's wealth
- Real factors (how much housing, food, quality of clothing, stuff that a nation has is it's wealth (welfare)
- Unrestrained markets tend to produce better economic growth and higher levels of productivity than economies that are constrained by governmental control
- Free market allows the people to show what they want, and free businesses produce what people want, and if they aren't producing what people want, the business goes belly up
- Two main focuses
- More workers, capitol, resources, machines, technologies, ideas (Not gold and silver)
- Keep the government out! (Lazzie-faire) How does the government know what the people want
- Focus on productivity
- We're still in the process of refining the above two thoughts, Classical Economists didn't get it exactly right (Cane). The core of their ideas are right
- Russian and Chinese economic revolutions: Major shifts toward capitalist principles

- This class is about government control and how it affects the economy

- Production
- Production function - summarizes the relationship between total inputs and total outputs assuming a given technology
- Y = F(Kbar, N) ... (Kbar = Fixed Capital)
- Marginal Product of Labor (MPN) - The addition of total output realized with the addition of a unit of labor input (other inputs remaining unchanged)
- Capitol, the Short Run and the Long Run
- Capitol - the tools, equipment and machinery used in the production process
- Fixed in the short run
- Short Run - the time period during which the amount of capital used in the production process is unchanged
- Long Run - the length of time it takes for the firm to alter it's quantity of output
- Diminishing Marginal Product
- Physical environment puts a constraint on the output
- As you add more variable inputs (students) the output (learning) diminishes (problems for professor maintaining order in the classroom to have everyone's attention) The incremental output from adding an additional input is going to start going down as compared to the previous input
- In the short run, the marginal product of labor will start to decline at some point as the quantity of labor is increased
- For a given wage paid labor, the marginal cost of labor usage must rise as it's marginal product falls
- MC = W / MPN (W is a nominal wage, MPN is how much can be produced by the unit of W)

- Short Run Profit Maximization
- Short run profit maximization requires that P - MC = W / MPN OR -- MPN = W / P --
- W is the money wage, MC is the marginal cost and P is the level of prices (CPI, GDP Deflator) MPN is the Marginal Product of Labor

- Labor Demand
- Since the marginal product of labor declines as more labor is used in the short run, it must be the case that the real wage (W / P) declines with additions of labor as well
- The demand for labor is simply the relationship between the real wage and the quantity of labor
- The real wage is inversely relations to the amount of labor

- Example of Labor Demand
- Show factory with 3 machines
- 1 cuts leather, 2 sews leather in the form of a shoe, 3 packages the completed shoes
- Each machine requires one operator
- The manager of the plant runs an experiment to determine the productivity of this equipment (All union workers have the same skill sets and are paid the same amount)
- On Monday a worker is hired to produce shoes (4 pairs in a day, one machine at a time)
- On Tuesday another worker is hired to help (two machines can run at the same time, A&B or A&C) (output is increased to 9 pairs of shoes)
- On Wednesday, a third worker is hired, all 3 machines running a the same time (15 pairs of shoes)
- On Thursday, a fourth worker is hired. There is some down time due to lunch breaks and clean up time. The fourth worker covers breaks and cleans up while the others are working. (20 pairs of shoes)
- On Friday, a fifth work is hired to do the same job as the fourth. (Output is increased to 24 pairs of shoes)
- A sixth worker only adds 2 more pairs of shoes (26 pairs a day)
- A seventh worker doesn't add any output, the marginal productivity has diminished (26 pairs a day)
- An either worker causes management problems and only 25 pairs are produced (people are getting in each others way)
- Diminishing Marginal Productivity is the reason why the labor demand graph is negatively sloped

ATMO 8/28 The Atmosphere

2008-08-28T13:46:00.001-07:00

ATMO 8/26 The Atmosphere
Current Weather:
- Gustav Hurricane/Tropical Storm
- Headed toward the Louisiana area according to forecast

Tucson Weather:
- Typical monsoon like weather patterns with SE flowing winds
- Looking for something to develop near Safford area which would travel SE to Tucson

Lecture:
The Atmosphere
- Outer layer of gases and aerosols that surround a planet
- On Earth, the Atmosphere is very thin (500km compared to Earth's radius of 6,370km)
- Troposphere contains all weather and clouds. Also contains about 75% of atmosphere by weight (75% of all gases)
- Extended from sea level to about 11km
- As you o further up, the atmosphere fades into outer space around 500km
- Gases are lighter than all other elements on the earth, so it flows to the outer edges of the planet. Atmosphere was formed by gases being released by volcanic eruptions.
- Humans are so well adapted to the 20% O2 atmosphere in the lowest 4km, we need it to survive.

Weather:
- The interaction of water vapor, aerosols, and convection currents
- Earth heats mostly around the equator, causing convection currents and jet streams
- Circulations that develop are trying to even temperature differences caused by uneven heating
- Earth's rotation complicates the motion of currents, causing them to spiral
- Water evaporates at the surface and re-condenses in the atmosphere (Essential for life on land)
- It takes a lot of energy (from the sun) to evaporate the water, the energy is carried along with the evaporated water (water vapor) and is very important to the formation of storm systems

Life Essential Functions of the Atmosphere
- Respiration
- Shield from UV radiation
- Protection from meteor collisions with the surface (they burn up in the atmosphere)
- Equalizes temperature differences caused by uneven heating on the Earth's surface
- Keeps the air temperature at the surface 60F warmer as compared to if there was no atmosphere

Atmosphere make up:
- Nitrogen 78%
- Oxygen 21%
- Water Vapor 0-4%
Greenhouse Gases:
- Water Vapor
- CO2 (Increased over 35% since 1750 (industrial revolution))
- Methane
- Nitrous Oxide

Ozone:
- 20-30km above ground surface protects animals and plants from harmful UV radiation
- Ozone near ground is a toxic pollutant
Photo chemical Smog:
- Vehicle exhaust mixed with sunlight and chemical reaction causes Ozone

Aerosols:
- Affect passage of solar radiation through the atmosphere
- Influence cloud formation (water vapor bond to aerosols)
- Man made aerosols can change the type of clouds that form
- Particulate air pollution (small aerosols that can enter the respitory system)

Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere:
Temperature
- As the average speed of individual molecules increases, the temperature increases
- At 0C, the average speed of individual molecules is roughly 1100 MPH
- This random speed is called thermal or kinetic motion
- A thermometer senses the average speed of molecules and is calibrated to indicate the temperature associated with the average speed of the molecules
- Temperature decreases with altitude in the troposphere, stays constant through the tropopause, and increases with altitude through the stratosphere
- Temperature decreases at an average rate of 6.5C per 1000 meters (3.6F per 1000 meter)
- Temperature inversions
- In troposphere, a layer of air where air temperature increases with increasing altitude
- Common near the ground in late night/early morning
- In the late afternoon the air in the lower half of the troposphere can be warmer than the day's average temperature
- In the early morning, the ground is cooler than the air above it, in effect cooling the air just above the ground causing a temperature inversion

ECON 8/28 Measurement of Macroeconomic Variables

2008-08-28T10:35:00.001-07:00

Measurement of Macroeconomic Variables
- The government realized after WWII that we weren't collecting very good economic data.
- The world economy was "blind sided" by the Great Depression because there was no data to study
- Now-a-days we have plenty of data that is continually updated (and flows to consumers as well as the gov't)
- In the past the economy has grown by 3.5%, if inflation rates are in double digits it's bad, 2-3% is good.
- GDP is a measure of the current market value of production (Only included in the GDP for the year the item was built)
- You must be talking about market value of current production, not current sales
- Market value causes a problem because it changes year to year
- Even if the production stays the same, inflation causes GDP to increase
- Market value causes changes to market production and price
- Inferior goods are not included in GDP
- Only counted when item is sold to final consumer, tires on a car are counted in the price of the car, not the amount GM paid Firestone for the tires
- Distinguishing goods sold to producers and goods sold to consumers
- When GM buys tires, it is not included in GDP (double counting would occur when car is sold if they were)
- Gov't has to take into account that when goods are sold, they are not necessarily sold to the final consumer
- Gross and Net Domestic Product
- Net DP includes depreciation
- Non-market production and the underground economy are not included (we would like to include but it's not tracked)
- Working on your own car, the service is production but is not included in GDP...should be but it can't be tracked via tax information and transaction processing
- Cash transactions sometimes cannot be tracked by the government
- In US the underground economy is less than 10% of economic activity, in some countries it can account for up to 50%
- 4 ways to categorize expenditures
- Consumption Expenditures (Car sold through dealer to everyday person)
- 2/3 (60-70%) of our production is produced for everyday people
- Investment Expenditures
- Business Direct (Car sold to business for it's sales force) LARGEST CATEGORY
- Residential Construction Expenditures 2ND LARGEST CATEGORY
- Inventory investment
- Volatile component with between 3-20% of GDP (Lower when economy is doing good, higher when bad)
- Government Expenditures
- Differentiation of gov't purchases and transfer activities
- Social Security isn't purchases by gov't it's transfer activities because it's transferred to someone else
- Unemployment and welfare payments are also transfer activities
- Around 20% of GDP
- Net Exports
- Can be sold to foreign final consumers, businesses, or governments
- Falling dollar causes changes in net exports
- Net National Product (NDP) is equal to GDP minus depreciation
- Sum of
- National Income is equal to NDP minus indirect taxes and other items
- Sum of all incomes
- Personal Disposable Income
- Includes income we earn and any transfer payments we receive
- PDI is income minus taxes paid
- GDP Deflator, Real GDP, and Nominal GDP
- Rather than measuring market value of what is produced, measure the # of items produced (but we can't do this)
- Neting out inflation
- GDP Deflator is the broadest price index (Aggregate price level relative to the base last year). Can be used to calculate inflation between different years. Price Index picks up on the general gist of prices, not any one product or even market...prices in the economy as an average.
- Real GDP is the estimate of the quantity of the current production of final goods and services (Removes price inflation). Market values (price increase/decrease) distort the measure of GDP telling us how productive we are and how much the economy has expanded/contracted.
- Nominal GDP is current market value of all currently produced final goods and services
- Chain Weighted Real GDP
- As you get further from the base year, the price index causes problems. As prices change, people change their behaviors. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) averages prices in the current year with prices in the previous year to compensate for these changes when calculating Real GDP. GDP Deflator assumes production has stayed the same, poses a distortion problem when calculating Real GDP.
- Chain Weighting makes a running average of prices over the previous years
- Potential GDP and Variations in Output
- Potential estimates the level of GDP if labor and capital were being fully utilized
- Actual tends to fluctuate around Potential GDP
- Monetary Policy - controlling the money supply to stabilize the growth in actual GDP
- Fiscal Policy - changing the level of taxes and government expenditures to stabilize the growth in actual GDP
- Inflation measures the rate of price change in general
- Unemployment measure the unemployed workforce
- Analyzing these variables is the hard part
- Accounting Identities
- Assumptions: Omit foreign sector, ignore indirect taxes, and discrepancies, ignore depreciation, no retained earnings, SS directly assessed to households, ignore business transfers
- With these assumptions, national product is the same as national income
- Identities:
T == Tx - Tr = net taxes
Yd == Y - Tx +Tr == Y - T = disposable income
Y == C + Ir + G = national income
C = consumption
G = government spending
Ir = realized investment
Yd == C + S
S = saving
^ In Book and you need to know

Dating Business Cycles (Page 29)
- Peaks and Troughs (Expansion and Recession) (4 years, 10 months)

MGMT 8/26 Ethics, Economics, & Free Market Regulation

2008-08-26T12:09:00.002-07:00

- Cave Spelunker (Fictional)
     - Ready to explore with all communications tools, measurement tools, food, instant water, and even if there is a cave in they will have food and know exactly how long it will take them to dig themselves out
     - All 9 people will die because of the lack of oxygen, if 1 person dies, the remaining 8 will all survive
     - This is an unethical theory
     - The ends justify the means: The rights of the individual person are more important than the groups right/decision to take his life for the better of the group
- Formalists
     - Even though the consequences may be worse than the effect of doing something wrong to achieve a better outcome, one is never right to do anything wrong (even if it benefits the whole)
     - Natural order
     - There is a limitation on actions which are right to coexist with others
- Rationalization is not moralization or "ethicalization"

- 1st amendment
     - Right to free speech
- 4th amendment
     - Right to privacy in your own home
     - Police using a "feeling, suspicion, hunch" to ignore warrant requirement/probably cause
- 1961 Mat Vs. Ohio Supreme Court Case
     - A person hiding in home in questioning for a recent bombing with lots of policy paraphernalia
     - Denied police entry without a warrant, so they surveyed for the next three hours
     - Police kicked in the door when the lady did not answer the door and the attorney was not let in
     - The police gave her a warrant (folded piece of paper) and she took it, an officer wrestled her to the ground and took the "warrant" back which was never to be found again

- Utilitarianism rule says: Optimize the rule to benefit society as a whole even though there will be some consequences

** READ SYLLABUS AND GET BOOK **

Just Need a Keyboard

2008-08-03T23:21:00.001-07:00

Now all I need is a Bluetooth BlackBerry keyboard so I don't get "BlackBerry Thumb" from taking notes in class!

Welcome

2008-08-03T13:57:00.004-07:00

This is where I will upload all my notes this semester right from my BlackBerry handheld. Always gotta try something new...

Mobile uploads via email, PC and Mobile viewing via RSS feeds.